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Gold price forecast: what moves the price

Gold has no earnings and pays no coupon, so its price is driven by how people feel about holding metal versus holding cash or bonds. The table on this page is arithmetic: it applies hypothetical percentage moves to the current metal value so you can see the effect on a rand amount. It is not a forecast, and nobody can tell you where the price will go.

The dollar is the first lever

Gold is priced in US dollars worldwide, so a stronger dollar usually makes it dearer for buyers using other currencies and tends to weigh on the price. A weaker dollar does the opposite. This link is loose and often breaks down, but it explains a lot of day-to-day noise.

Real interest rates

What matters is the return after inflation. When safe government debt pays a decent real yield, holding metal that yields nothing looks expensive. When real yields are low or negative, the opportunity cost of holding gold falls and demand often rises.

Central bank buying

Official sector purchases can absorb large volumes and support the market for long stretches. Reserve managers buy for diversification and policy reasons, not for a quick trade, so their demand is slow-moving but heavy.

Inflation expectations

Gold is treated as a store of value, so expectations of future inflation feed demand. The relationship is not mechanical: what counts is expected inflation relative to interest rates, not the headline figure on its own.

Risk sentiment

In stressed markets money often moves toward gold as a safe haven, and away from it when investors are confident and chasing higher returns. These flows are fast and can reverse within days.

The South African angle

Local buyers face a second variable: the rand. Even if the dollar price is flat, a weaker rand lifts the rand price of metal, and a stronger rand trims it. That currency effect can matter more than the world price over short periods.

Gold price in South Africa today

South Africa · ZAR · gram · 24k

Price of 1 gram, 24k2,091.37ZAR

Calculated from the world price at 01:50 SAST: world price × rate × purity × weight of 1 gram. Not a dealer quote. How we calculate

A jeweller’s price is different. Making charges, the shop’s margin and the gap between buying and selling are added to or taken from this figure.

Levels from today’s price

Plain arithmetic, not a prediction: what the price would be after a move of the size shown. Today’s figure is the starting point.

ZAR, metal only · calculated
MovePrice of 1 gram, 24kDifference
−10%1,882.23−209.14
−5%1,986.80−104.57
−2%2,049.54−41.83
+2%2,133.20+41.83
+5%2,195.94+104.57
+10%2,300.51+209.14

How it moved

1 day
−13.73ZAR−0.64%
7 days
−4.00ZAR−0.19%
30 days
−49.11ZAR−2.24%

gram of 24k: the latest daily reference fixing against the fixing of the day named. Fixings, not closes: see the note under the chart.

Gram of 24k, day by day

daily reference fixing, last point
  • 2,274.25high · 21.09
  • 2,140.91low · 26.10
Last
2,142.69 ZAR · 30.10
Over the period
−131.56ZAR−5.78%
  • 2,379.77high · 25.08
  • 2,109.63low · 01.07
Last
2,142.69 ZAR · 30.10
Over the period
+10.04ZAR+0.47%

Daily reference fixing: a blend of central-bank fixings taken at different hours of the day, converted at the rate of the same day. It is not a market close and can differ from the live figure at the top of the page.

The same 90 trading days as a table
DayFixing, ZARChange
2,142.69−13.73
2,156.42+2.67
2,153.75+10.71
2,143.04+2.13
2,140.91−5.78
2,146.69−21.46
2,168.15−2.26
2,170.41−15.71
2,186.12−11.54
2,197.66+1.24
2,196.42+0.12
2,196.30−5.55
2,201.85−10.65
2,212.50−3.31
2,215.81+12.88
2,202.93+1.45
2,201.48−6.34
2,207.82+1.96
2,205.86−16.58
2,222.44−2.21
2,224.65+19.06
2,205.59+13.79
2,191.80+7.57
2,184.23−41.21
2,225.44−17.30
2,242.74−10.16
2,252.90−6.43
2,259.33−0.53
2,259.86−14.39
2,274.25+8.73
2,265.52+16.17
2,249.35+2.71
2,246.64+3.18
2,243.46−9.64
2,253.10−8.22
2,261.32−11.36
2,272.68+14.47
2,258.21−6.08
2,264.29−2.89
2,267.18−14.83
2,282.01+18.37
2,263.64+11.78
2,251.86−53.61
2,305.47−16.20
2,321.67−41.32
2,362.99−1.17
2,364.16−7.79
2,371.95−7.82
2,379.77+11.54
2,368.23+41.41
2,326.82+16.52
2,310.30+33.91
2,276.39−9.88
2,286.27+9.13
2,277.14+11.19
2,265.95−9.82
2,275.77+0.82
2,274.95+5.17
2,269.78+27.42
2,242.36+12.68
2,229.68+14.98
2,214.70+54.46
2,160.24+18.50
2,141.74−2.60
2,144.34−16.10
2,160.44−1.26
2,161.70−5.32
2,167.02−15.04
2,182.06−12.38
2,194.44+6.46
2,187.98+13.74
2,174.24+15.55
2,158.69+28.70
2,129.99+8.33
2,121.66−1.56
2,123.22+1.00
2,122.22−2.51
2,124.73−5.60
2,130.33−9.69
2,140.02−6.51
2,146.53+0.71
2,145.82−9.08
2,154.90−2.93
2,157.83−7.40
2,165.23+16.62
2,148.61+22.04
2,126.57+16.94
2,109.63−5.09
2,114.72−17.93
2,132.65—

How we calculate

We do not collect dealers’ prices. Every figure is worked out from the world price, the same way, on every page.

world price per troy ounce÷grams in an ounce×dollar rate×purity×grams in the unit

  1. World priceSpot gold in US dollars from an aggregated feed 1, recalculated every 10 minutes while the market is open.
  2. RateThe ZAR rate from central-bank reference data 2. It is a market reference rate, not an official fixing of your central bank.
  3. Purity and weightFixed constants with their source: see the unit pages. 22k counts as 916 parts gold in 1000.
  4. WeekendsNo trading, no recalculation: the last price before the close stays, marked “market closed”.
  5. HistoryThe history and the chart use one series only: daily reference fixings, converted at the rate of the same day. We never join them to the live figure.

Why a jeweller’s price is different

Shops add a making charge and their margin, and buy back for less than they sell. Our figure is the metal alone: the floor of a fair price, not the shop price.

Sources

Every figure on this site points here by its number.

  1. 1Price feedWorld spot price of gold and silver, aggregated feedthe world price, every 10 minutes while the market is open
  2. 2Central banksFrankfurter — central-bank reference ratesUSD → ZAR, updated daily; also the daily history
  3. 3StandardUnits of weight and finenessgrams in an ounce and in a gram